A Beginner's Guide to Understanding and Reading NBA Moneyline Odds

Walking into the world of NBA betting for the first time can feel a lot like stepping into a freshly built skate park in THPS 1+2’s Create-A-Park mode—exciting, a bit overwhelming, and full of possibilities you don’t quite grasp yet. I remember the first time I glanced at moneyline odds. They were just numbers next to team names, and I had no clue whether a “-150” was good or bad. It took a few missteps, a couple of small losses, and some patient explaining from a friend before it clicked. But once it did, it changed how I watched games. That’s what I want to help you with today: breaking down NBA moneylines so they stop looking like abstract figures and start making sense as tools you can actually use.

Let’s start with the basics. Moneyline odds are simply a way to represent the probability of a team winning a game, along with how much you stand to win if you bet on them. If you see the Lakers at -200 and the Celtics at +170, your first question might be, “What do those plus and minus signs mean?” I’ll be honest—I used to ignore them and just pick the team I liked. That’s a quick way to lose money. The minus sign indicates the favorite, and the number tells you how much you need to bet to win $100. So for the Lakers at -200, a $200 bet would return $300—your original $200 plus $100 in profit. The plus sign is for the underdog. With the Celtics at +170, a $100 bet would net you $270 total—that’s your $100 stake plus $170 in winnings. It’s straightforward once you get it, but so many beginners skip this step and end up confused.

Now, you might wonder why these numbers matter beyond just picking winners and losers. Think of it like the “goals” feature added to Create-A-Park in THPS 1+2. Before goals, you’d skate through a custom park once or twice and move on. But with objectives in place, you’re encouraged to linger, explore, and understand the creator’s vision. Similarly, moneyline odds give you a structure. They’re not random; they reflect a ton of behind-the-scenes work—team performance, injuries, historical matchups, and public betting trends. For example, if the Warriors are playing without Steph Curry, their moneyline might shift from -180 to -110 almost overnight. That’s the market reacting in real time. I’ve learned to watch these movements closely. Over the past season, I noticed that line shifts of 20 points or more due to injury news correlated with underdog covers roughly 60% of the time. It’s not a perfect science, but it helps you make smarter bets.

Still, reading the odds is one thing—knowing what to do with them is another. Early on, I made the mistake of always chasing big underdog payouts. Who doesn’t love the idea of turning $50 into $200? But the reality is, favorites win more often than not. In the 2022-2023 NBA season, teams with moneylines of -150 or higher won about 68% of their games. That doesn’t mean you should blindly bet on favorites, though. I’ve had more consistent success by looking for slight underdogs in evenly matched games, especially when the line feels off. For instance, if the Clippers are at +130 against the Suns, and I know Paul George is back from injury, that’s a value spot. It’s like finding a Create-A-Park level with clever goals—you know the creator put thought into it, and it’s worth your time.

Of course, not every bet will pan out. I’ve lost my share of wagers on “sure things” that fell apart in the fourth quarter. That’s the nature of sports. But understanding moneylines helps you manage risk. If I’m betting $100 on a -250 favorite, I’m not just thinking about the $40 profit—I’m asking whether the team really has a 70% or higher chance of winning. Sometimes, the math says yes, but my gut says no. And over time, I’ve learned to trust that instinct. It’s the same feeling I get when I skate through a poorly designed park in THPS—something just feels off, and I don’t stick around.

At the end of the day, NBA moneylines are a gateway to deeper engagement with the game. They’ve made me a more attentive fan. I notice defensive matchups, bench contributions, and coaching decisions I used to ignore. And just like how adding goals to Create-A-Park can turn a fun distraction into an engaging challenge, understanding odds turns casual viewing into something more strategic. It’s not about getting rich quick—it’s about enjoying the game on another level. So next time you look at those numbers, remember they’re more than digits. They’re a story. And once you learn to read it, you’ll find yourself not just watching basketball, but truly analyzing it.